Read e-book online Agricultural Trade and Poverty: Making Policy Analysis Count PDF

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By Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development

ISBN-10: 9264197338

ISBN-13: 9789264197336

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Reduced OECD support would raise world food prices, causing real wages in developing countries to rise across the board and increase more than capital returns. In other words, removal of OECD agricultural protection is pro-poor on average, with the possible caveat that wage gains among urban poor would be offset by rising food prices. Though world food prices rise, the changes in terms of trade are positive for all developing regions on aggregate. Terms of trade effects induced by domestic programs are substantial, especially for meat products.

Aglink results are, at present, deterministic in that the outcome is contingent upon point values for assumptions that may be subject to great uncertainty. Of course, as a partial rather than general equilibrium model, there are limits to the sectoral scope of the model. The model emphasises detailed policy and market representation rather than offer a more simplified, but broader perspective. Finally, the model remains somewhat exclusive in nature, limiting its use, but also input in maintenance and development to OECD Members and co-operators.

At the same time, removal of support takes a subsidy burden off the international price system, as OECD agricultural prices must rise to offset the loss of government support. This in turn will raise rates of return for farmers with support below the prior levels, especially those with no support in developing countries, and the lowest rural incomes can rise sharply. To get a more precise impression of these agricultural linkages effects, consider the sectoral output adjustments presented in Table 2.

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Agricultural Trade and Poverty: Making Policy Analysis Count by Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development


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